Deja Vu All Over Again

I keep having conversations with my best friend which are nearly identical to those we had four years ago. I am panicked, angry, and vehement about not being further ahead in the polls. He is cool, calm, and thoughtful. I say we should be 15 points ahead going into November 4th. He says its all about the 270 electoral votes, and not to worry. The polling on the ground in those crucial states indicates we will get by with the 270. His theory is that a few points lead is better than nothing, and that momentum is on our side.

This is a smart guy, one of the smartest people I know. Right about most everything, and an enviable talent for getting the big picture. But, I was right to be worried in October of 2004, and I am not seeing anything, yet, that is convincing enough to make me believe this year is wholly different. Save for the more appealing, younger, richly talented candidate, the 2008 Democratic Presidential Campaign continues to lack the punch I believe is necessary to celebrate November 5th.

Take the debate (please!). Obama walked in strong and came out strong. But, McCain walked in weak and came out strong. Obama had at least three opportunities to put it all away, and I mean ALL of it, and he played it safe. Hey, I totally get not combating crazy with crazy, but when your opponent refers to himself as a "maverick" in such a ridiculous manner, you have to pounce and make it memorable. Exhume Bentsen: "I have known mavericks in my life, these are people who speak truth to both power and to the people (fill in the obligatory identifiable crusader, try Richard Clarke, although I may still be the only one who wonders why we do not have statues of him in every park - I'd even be okay with an MLK reference), and you sir cannot embrace George Bush and his tragic policies, employ millionaire lobbyists, and completely embrace the far right wing of the right wing in an election year and call yourself a maverick. You, sir, are no maverick."

[Do you ever wonder why McCain has stopped referring to his maverickness in going after Jack Abramoff? Read this.]

I know, Bentsen did not become VP. But let's remember, he won the debate. Mike Dukakis lost the election. Debates are won and lost on soundbites and playable clips. Obama, of all people, should understand (hell, he's the only candidate of the four who seems to embrace the technology of the last quarter century!) that in a YouTube/Tivo/iTunes world, people don't want the whole pie, just a slice of the good stuff. Have you watched the post debate-coverage? They are struggling to find a representative clip. Barack's answers were too long, McCain's are too confusing (and errant) so for different reasons, they do not get played. Leaving folks to discuss the inability of McCain to look to his left, and the seemingly polite Obama hitch for saying "John is right" before making a contrary point. Hardly the stuff of knockout.

In future debates there are three simple statements Obama can make, honestly, that will be played ad infinitum:
1. Look right into the camera and say “Hey, Osama bin Laden and all other terrorists – be scared of me, ‘cause I’m not taking my eye off of you.” Red meat wins over undecideds and maybe even those Republicans who still feel 9/11 has not been dealt with.
2. Turn to McCain and say “John, I don’t even think you believe half of the stuff that comes out of your mouth.” Humor always trumps grumpy.
3. Play the hits: “Are you better off now than you were 8 years ago?” “It’s not the economy, stupid, it’s that John McCain and the republicans have given us a stupid economy!” That one, by the way, is the punch you missed in the first three minutes of Friday’s event. Going out on the stump the day after the debate (a Saturday when nobody but me watches TV) and pointing out how McCain never mentioned the middle class is a wasted punch that would have landed squarely Friday night.

McCain spent a week handing over the election to Obama, and in the debate literally turned his back to give Barack a free shot. Is it enough to be 3-9 points ahead in the polls? Ask Al Gore and John Kerry. Is it enough to have higher registration numbers than the other party? Ask Al Gore and John Kerry. Is it enough to have a seasoned, smarter, more eloquent Vice Presidential Nominee going after an inexperienced, clueless, dangerous, populist newcomer in a debate? Ask Mike Dukakis.

Here's a lost cautionary tale from SNL